FACTBOX-Impact of India~s previous drought on crops

Aug 31 2009 4:04PM

Aug 31 (Reuters) - India's monsoon rains are likely to be the worst in nearly 40 years, expected to fall 20 percent short of normal. India last saw a similar rainfall deficit in 2002.

Following are details of the impact of the 2002 drought on various crops and edible oil output and imports, which may be a pointer to the implications of this year's failed monsoon.

SPECIFIC CROPS * Wheat output in 2002/03 fell 10 percent to 65.76 million tonnes, the lowest since 1995/96, when output was 62.1 million tonnes. The yield, 2.61 tonnes per hectare, was the lowest since 1998/99, while the crop area had fallen 4 percent. * Soybean output fell 22 percent to 4.65 million tonnes, the lowest since 1992/93, when output was 3.39 million tonnes. The yield, at 762 kg per hectares, was the lowest since 1987/88. Crop area was 3.6 percent lower. * Sugar cane: Despite a 2.5 percent rise in crop area, output fell 3.3 percent to 287.38 million tonnes, lowest since 1997/98 when India produced 279.5 million tonnes. The yield, in tonnes per hectare, was 63.58 in the drought year, the lowest since 1988/89. * Rice output fell 23.5 percent to 71.82 million tonnes, the lowest since 1988/89 when India produced 70.49 million tonnes. * Corn output fell 15.3 percent to 11.15 million tonnes. The yield was the lowest since 1994/05.

EDIBLE OILS * The net domestic availability of edible oils fell to 4.66 million tonnes from 6.15 million tonnes. * Imports were only marginally higher at 4.365 million tonnes against 4.322 million tonnes in the previous year. * Domestic consumption, which declined because of lower rural incomes, stood at 9.03 million tonnes, down from 10.47 million tonnes and was the lowest since 1997/98.

* Groundnut production fell to 4.12 million tonne from 7.03 million tonnes while output of oil extracted from it fell to 0.95 million tonnes from 1.6 million tonnes.

OVERALL IMPACT: Area left Unsown: 18 Million Hectares Contingency Crop Shift: 1.5 Million Hectares Sown Area damage: 47 Million Hectares Food crop output Loss: 24 million tonnes Estimated crop loss: 300 billion rupees Relief expenditure: 90 billion rupees

RAINFALL PATTERN:

In June, rainfall was 9.4 percent surplus in 2002, but this year it was the worst in more than 80 years.

In 2002, the month of July saw a 55 percent shortfall in rainfall, which was the highest in recorded history, while this year July rainfall was only 5 percent short of normal.

August rainfall was close to normal in 2002 but this year, the worst two weeks of the month were exceptionally dry, but rainfall improved in the latter half of the month.

For a graphic on Indian crops and rainfall trends