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Monday, March 29, 2010
Indian Meals Prices
Soybean Meal - US$ 370-375 fob Kandla / Bedi port
Rapeseed Meal - US$ 259-260 fob Kandla port
Peanut (Groundnut) Meal - US$ 370-375 fob Bedi port
Rice Bran Meal - US$ 175-177 fob Kakinada
The prices for soymeal has dropped down this month by 6% due to lack of demand and good South American crop. The prices for Indian meals at present are under pressure for declining exports volume.
Wholesale Prices of Soymeal in Indian market:
Indore - US$ 368 per ton
MUmbai - US$ 398 per ton
Castor Products:
Meal - US$ 78-80 per ton in bulk ; Oil FSG - US$ 1390-1400 per ton Ex-Kandla
Indian Barley
The april contracts were trading at around US$ 211 per ton (moving up by approx. 2.5%) while may contracts were at US$ 213 per ton (going up by 2%) on ncdex.
The wholesale mandi rates in Jaipur market were US$ 199 per ton.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Mustard may rise on millers demand
Currently at 12.55 pm, the contract traded at 492.2 up by 5.9 rupees near its intraday high of 493.3.
“Technical range for Mustard is from 470-510,” said Shyamal Mehta, Sr. Commodity Analyst with Commodity Online.
14 days RSI for Mustard Apr contract is 58.52 and it shows uptrend. Support for the Mustard is seen at 480 and below could see a test of 470. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 500, a move above could see prices testing 515.
सोयाबीन के उत्पादन से पाम तेल को फायदा
दक्षिण अमेरिकी देशों में सोयाबीन फसल का बंपर उत्पादन होने से इस साल सोया तेल की ज्यादा आपूर्ति हो सकती है।
हालांकि पिछले साल सोयाबीन के उत्पादन में कमी आई थी। ऐसे में मुमकिन है कि पाम ऑयल के कारोबार में इस साल कुछ तब्दीली नजर आ जाए। गोदरेज इंटरनैशनल के निदेशक दोराब मिस्त्री भी यह मानते हैं कि वर्ष 2010-11 के दौरान पाम ऑयल अपने निकटतम प्रतिद्वंद्वी सोया ऑयल के मुकाबले प्रीमियम के साथ कारोबार कर सकता है।
अब तक पाम ऑयल का कारोबार सोया तेल के मुकाबले 32 फीसदी की छूट के साथ होता रहा है। हालांकि रुपये के लिहाज से यह छूट 56 फीसदी तक हो सकती है।
लंदन में नैशनल इंस्टीटयूट ऑफ ऑयलसीड प्रोडक्ट (एनआईओपी) की सालाना बैठक में मिस्त्री का कहना है, 'वर्ष 2010 में कच्चे पाम ऑयल और सोया तेल के बीच स्प्रेड बहुत सीमित रहेगा और संभावना है कि पॉम ऑयल प्रीमियम में चला जाए।'
ऐतिहासिक रूप से पाम ऑयल का कारोबार छूट के साथ होता रहा है क्योंकि दुनिया के दो बड़े उत्पादक देशों मसलन इंडोनेशिया और मलेशिया में सबसे ज्यादा उपलब्धता है। अनुमान है कि मलेशिया में कच्चे पाम ऑयल के उत्पादन में लगातार दूसरे साल भी कमी आएगी और यह 172 लाख टन हो जाएगा। इसकी वजह नया अलनीनो प्रभाव और पुर्नवृक्षारोपड़ कार्यक्रम है।
पाम ऑयल का इस्तेमाल जैव ईंधन के रूप में होता रहा है, उससे भी इसे मदद मिलेगी। पाम ऑयल की अत्यधिक उपलब्धता में मामूली कमी आएगी और अप्रैल 2010 से मार्च 2011 के बीच यह कमी केवल 8 लाख टन की होगी जो अप्रैल 2009 से मार्च 2010 की अवधि के दौरान यह 15 लाख टन था।
इंडस्ट्री के सूत्रों का कहना है कि अनुमानित वैश्विक सोया तेल की अतिरिक्त आपूर्ति अप्रैल 2009 से मार्च 2010 के बीच 15 लाख टन घाटे के अनुमान के मुकाबले अप्रैल 2010 से मार्च 2011 तक कम से कम 20 लाख टन रहेगी।
मलेशिया में कच्चे तेल के उत्पादन में तभी बढ़ोतरी होगी जब इसमें थोड़ा सुधार किया जाएगा। इस लिहाज से कई कोशिशंक भी की गई हैं और अगले कुछ सालों में सुधार भी नजर आएगा। हालांकि उत्पादन में किसी बड़ी तेजी के लिए कई वर्षों तक इंतजार करना पड़ सकता है।
इसके अलावा अलनीनों की वजह से भी इंडोनेशिया में उत्पादन के भविष्य पर एक सवालिया निशान लग गया है और मौजूदा सीजन के दौरान कुल उत्पादन में 10 लाख टन की बढ़ोतरी का अनुमान है। उत्पादन में ज्यादातर बढ़ोतरी रकबे में विस्तार की वजह से हुआ जो अब खत्म हो रहा है। वर्ष 1997 के बाद की अवधि में रकबे में विस्तार हर साल करीब 500,000 हेक्टेयर होता है जो वर्ष 2008 के बाद आधा हो गया
Key facts about India's rapeseed crop
By Ratnajyoti Dutta
March 11 (Reuters) - India, the world's top buyer of edible oils will likely exceed an earlier forecast for its current rapseed crop on favourable weather though still fall short of last year's levels and continue to rely on imports.
See [SGE62909N]
Here are some key facts about the Indian rapeseed crop.
- India is the world's fourth biggest rapeseed producer, contributing 13 percent of global output of 56 million tonnes in 2008/09.
- The European Union is the top producer with a 36 percent share, followed by Canada, 24 percent; and China, 22 percent.
- India produced 7.2 million tonnes of rapeseed in the crop year 2008/09, up 24 percent from 5.8 million tonnes in previous year, according to farm ministry.
- Rapeseed has the highest oil content (35-40 percent) among India's nine main oilseeds that include soybean, groundnut and sunflower.
- Early maturing rapeseed crop is sown from mid-Septmember to October, while the sowing of late maturing varieties continues until mid-November. It is harvested from February onwards.
- The northern state of Rajasthan accounts for 47 percent of India's rapeseed output, followed by Punjab and Haryana jointly contributing around 14 percent, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh at 13 percent and Gujarat at 7 percent.
- Rapeseed oil is consumed mainly in northern and eastern India and used as a food preservative in southern states.
- Rapeseed oil meets about 15 percent of the edible oil demand of India, the world's top importer of vegetable oils.
- India's vegetable oil imports, comprising edible oils and hydrogenated fats, hit an all-time high of 8.7 million tonnes in 2008/09 against 6.3 million tonnes in 2007/08. * Rapeseed output in 2009... 7.2 mln tonnes * Oilseeds output in 2008/09.28 mln tonnes * Total rapeseed area....27-28 mln hectares * Average yield per hectare.........1179 kg * Rapeseed oil share in edible oil demand.......15 percent * Oil recovery from rapeseed..35-40 percent * Per-capita edible oil consumption...............11-12 kg * Share in global oilseed output...............13 percent * Indian share in global edible oil demand....9.33 percent * Total demand for edible oils in 2007/08....13 mln tonnes * Local edible oil supplies in 2007/08.......5 mln tonnes * India vegetable oil marketing year..............Nov-Oct * Oilseed crop year...............July-June Source: Government of India and trade
NCDEX Refined soy oil futures have extended their yesterday's gains today, eying a recovery in the global edible oils prices and demand in the local spot markets. The commodity has been on a losing spree in the last few days, hitting a low of Rs 454.10 per 10 kg for the NCDEX April contract on March 15.
The counter rebounded smartly yesterday and closed at Rs 456.80 per 10 kg as some fresh buying perked up at these levels. The counter continued to recover further today, extending gains from a six week low as the commodity market participants eyed a pick up in the spot market demand as well.
The near month March futures are about to expire on 19th of March and there is strong rollover taking place. The commodity is expected to trade in a volatile manner owing to the expiry and fresh gains could be witnessed if the Rs 460 threshold continues to hold ground. The counter was quoting at Rs 460.55 per 10 kg when last seen and the day's highs of Rs 461.20 could be overcome if 460 sustains. The global leads are positive with crude oil holding around $82 per barrel and Malaysian CPO futures trading up MUR 23 or nearly 1% for the benchmark contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange.
Rabi oilseeds production increases 2.3%

Our Bureau
Chennai, March 17
Oilseeds production during rabi may have increased 2.3 per cent but the overall production for the oil year ending October is likely to be 9.2 per cent lower, according to estimates made by the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT).
According to the estimate made public at the 31 {+s} {+t} All-India Rabi Seminar of Oilseeds, Oil Trade and Industry, rabi oilseed production is likely to be 94.6 lakh ones (lt) against 92.3 lt last year.
Rapeseed/mustard will be the major contributor with its output estimated at 63.2 lt against 62 lt a year ago. Groundnut production is also seen higher than last year at 18.3 lt (17 lt), sesame seed is seen up at 3.3 lt (2.8 lt) while that of linseed is 1.6 lt (1.3 lt).
The production of sunflower may be lower at 6.7 lt (7.5 lt) and that of safflower at 1.5 lt (1.7 lt).
The rise in production comes despite a fall in the coverage of oilseed. According to COOIT, the area under oilseeds this rabi has been 94.07 lakh hectares (lh) against 98.31 lh a year ago.
The area under rabi groundnut increased to 10.17 lh (9.52 lh) but that of rapeseed/mustard dropped to 65.07 lh (66.87 lh). Overall oilseeds production this season (November 2009-October 2010) is now projected at 329.2 lt against 338.4 lt a year ago. The Solvent Extractors Association, in a statement, said rapeseed/mustard production was likely to increase despite lower acreage as the weather condition was favourable.
Going by the production estimate, the vegetable oil availability from the oilseeds, including cottonseed and copra, would be 78.8 lt against 82.1 lt last year.
COOIT also revised the estimates of the kharif crop by pruning the production of toria to 1 lt from 1.5 lt and that of cottonseed to 91.5 lt from 94.6 lt. Castorseed output, however, has been raised to 9.3 lt from 8.5 lt.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
India oilseeds, soyoil extend losses on weak demand
Select edible oils decline on poor global cues
Global vegoil prices may correct 10-20%
G. Chandrashekhar
Mumbai, March 7
Record global output of oilseeds and in turn vegetable oil, huge projected ending stocks, a world still struggling to come out of recession (despite nascent recovery signals), a firm US dollar and tightening monetary policy have all combined to pressure the global vegetable oil market.
Over the next two months, under pressure of market arrivals, especially from the record South American crops, prices are expected to ease.
The market has already taken cognisance of the changing market fundamentals and features of broader markets.
Under the lead of soyabean oil, global vegetable oil prices including palm oil prices are set to register a welcome correction of anything between 10 and 20 per cent.
Arrival pressure
Come April, peak production season for palm oil will start; and that is the time arrival pressure from Brazil and Argentina will be felt. Beyond that of course, the US planting intentions, actual planting and weather would take over.
Back home in India, after record imports of nearly 8.2 million tonnes of various oils for the oil year ended October 2009, arrivals are still unabated and were an estimated 2.3 mt till January 2010, averaging close to eight lakh tonnes a month.
Currently, India has a conservatively estimated inventory of over one million tonnes of imported oils at various ports. In the vain hope of a hike in customs duty, many importers over-traded. The Finance Minister did not oblige them. If anything, storage tanks are going full and rentals have shot up. There is a strong belief, a significant part of Indian import is actually stock transfer so as to pare down inventory levels at the origin.
Almost half the soyabean crop harvested last October/ November is yet to hit the market. Farmers and traders cannot hold on to the stocks for long.
Rapeseed/mustard crop has been estimated by the Government at 7.3 mt and by the trade at less than 6 mt. Discussion with market participants reveals the crop size could be around 6.5 mt. This will add to supply pressure.
Food inflation factor
Food inflation is still a big issue in the country and strong prices of rice, wheat, pulses and sugar have eroded the purchasing power of the poor.
Foodgrains and edible oil are complementary products and so demand for cooking oil moves in tandem with demand for food grains.
Overall, in the short-run, the global and Indian vegetable oil market conditions point to a price decline rather than an increase. Beyond June, onset and progress of southwest monsoon in India will have to be watched. Weather concerns, if any, in the Northern Hemisphere will have to be reckoned with.
Non-fundamental factors
In addition to market fundamentals (which over the next quarter point to a price decline), non-fundamental factors including dollar dynamics and flow of speculative capital will influence price direction. There is a widespread expectation that there will be a further monetary tightening in the US and that the dollar will remain firm vis-à-vis the euro. In the event, world vegoil market will surely stay under pressure.
The Indian Government is most unlikely to change the extant customs duty structure anytime soon, despite hectic lobbying by the industry and trade.
Depending on how the next kharif oilseeds crop shapes up, a call may be taken sometime mid-September.
Mustard Seed: May decline on weak fundamentals
Weak trend in soy complex market also had a bearish impact on the mustard seed market. Traders sold futures on speculation that arrivals will improve in the coming days as the harvesting is progressing well.
The most active April contract RM seed futures made an intraday low of 469.45 levels from a high of 477.10 levels and settled at 471.30 levels, declining by 1.18%.
Outlook
Mustard seed futures are expected to trade on a negative note during the day on follow through selling backed by weak fundamental factors.
Improvement in harvesting of the crop and its flow to the spot markets is likely to weigh on the market.
The spot mustard seed is trading at Rs.480-482 per 20 kg. The SEA rapeseed-mustard crop survey team has estimated India’s mustard seed crop at 59.20 lakh tonnes against 62 lakh tonnes produced last year.
The open interest increased by 2.34% to 109110 tonnes while volume increased by 199.62% to 87130 tonnes. The rise in volume and open interest along with fall in the price is indicating further weakness in the price.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
| Indian Feedmeals & Oils | ||
| Posted on: 06/03/10 | ||
|
Friday, March 5, 2010
Palm oil hits 2-month highs ahead of industry meet
One local trader said the palm oil market was going to continue trading in a tight range before the Bursa Malaysia’s Palm Oil and Laurics Conference started on Monday.
“People are thinking Bursa Malaysia Palm Oil Conference speakers will say the market will go bullish at levels like RM2,800-RM3,000 (a tonne),” a trader with a foreign brokerage based in Kuala Lumpur said.
Benchmark May crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed at RM2,674 per tonne after rising as high as RM2,686, a level unseen since Jan 6.
Traded volumes surged to 16,754 lots of 25 tonnes each from the usual 10,000 lots.
Traders are also on the lookout for February palm oil stocks, production and export data due to be released on Wednesday by industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board.
Crude oil fell towards US$80 a barrel, weighing on other vegetable oil markets. The soyoil March contract at the Chicago Board of Trade slipped in Asian hours as expectations of a bumper soybean crop offset rising crude oil prices.
In China, the most active September soyoil futures fell almost 0.9% due to expectations of rising soybean imports in April and May.
One Chinese trader said rising soybean imports would not have long-term effects on palm oil’s cash and futures markets.
“The spread between soybean oil and palm oil could further narrow to below US$100, and palm oil will grow when the weather is warmer.
“Imports of palm oil from February till May is likely to increase by 5%-10%,” one analyst in Shanghai said.
China, the world’s second-largest palm oil importer, bought 900,000 to 1.1 million tonnes of palm oil in February to May last year.
In Indonesia, Jakarta-based PT KBN Nusantara, formerly known as the state marketing centre, sold 4,500 tonnes of crude palm oil at a top price of 7,716 rupiah (US$0.833) per kg against 7,702 rupiah on Wednesday. — Reuters