Wed Sep 15, 2010 7:59am IST
(Repeats story issued late on Tuesday)
* Late-season rainfall a risk for cotton, soybean harvest
* Flood risk in some parts of the country
* Continued rains can hurt India's sugar output (Adds crop impact, quotes)
NEW DELHI, Sept 14 (Reuters) - India's monsoon rains are likely to start easing nearly a month later than normal, the weather office said on Tuesday, raising the risk of floods in some areas and delays to soybean and cotton harvesting.
Excessive September rain in the world's top vegetable oils buyer could also hurt the soybean harvest, which usually begins mid-month. That could boost demand for imports.
Heavy showers have already hindered the cotton harvest in the world's second-biggest producer of the fibre.
"As of now, we are expecting the withdrawal should start towards the end of this month," Ajit Tyagi, head of the India Meteorological Department, told reporters.
The monsoon usually starts retreating from parts of northern and western India on Sept. 1.
India's June-September monsoon, which last year delivered the weakest rainfall in 37 years, began on a shaky note this year, but gathered momentum in July and has delivered surplus rainfall this month.
Some parts of India have been hit by floods in recent weeks. While the floods have not significantly damaged crops so far, they have contributed to rising food inflation, which accelerated to 14.64 percent in August from a year earlier.
Most economists now expect the central bank to raise key policy rates at its mid-quarter review on Thursday.
Total monsoon rain since June 1 is about 2 percent above normal, while September rainfall is 22 percent higher than average, weather office data showed. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
For a graphic on rainfall in week to Sept 8:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/F/09/IN_RNFAL080910.gif
For a graphic on regional distribution of rain:
link.reuters.com/rab69n
For a graphic on weekly and seasonal rains:
link.reuters.com/xex59n
For graphic on reservoirs:
link.reuters.com/zyw59n ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Tyagi said heavy showers were expected next week, which may cause floods in some pockets.
He added there may be some rainfall in October also.
"I'm not ruling it out. The probability is there," he said.
"Heavy showers at the maturing stage is not good for the cotton crop. It poses the threat of pest attack and could delay harvesting," L.S. Rathore, head of the agricultural meteorology division of the weather office, told Reuters.
New York cotton futures CTZO, which soared to a 15-year high on Monday, were up 1.11 cents, or 1.2 percent, at 93.82 cents per lb at 1207 GMT.
So far, heavy rainfall has not hurt crops.
"Overall condition of summer crops is good as there is no major report of any damage due to pest attack," Rathore said.
But late rainfall remains a concern, even for the sugar industry which begins cane crushing by October.
"Continuous heavy rains will be bad for the cane crop," said S.L. Gupta, secretary of the Uttar Pradesh Sugar Mills Association, the main millers body in the country's biggest cane-producing state.
Gupta said unabated rains obstruct sunlight, vital for growth of the cane crop, and also damage the crop by water logging.
Sugar output in India, the world's top consumer and second-biggest producer, is set to bounce back after a two-year cyclical dip that helped New York raw sugar futures climb to the highest in 29 years in February.
Any setback in sugar output in India would put upward pressure on New York raw sugar futures SBV0, which touched a 6- month peak on Tuesday.
No comments:
Post a Comment